📰 Peer-reviewed article Économie & prévision
📄 Reference
Mendez, Rodrigue and Ragot, Lionel, (2010), Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?, Economie & Prévision, n° 194, issue 3, p. 57-78.
Abstract
We use a model based on the latest forecasts by the French Retirement Advisory Council (Conseil d?Orientation des Retraites : COR) at the moment when the study was carried out and a Bootstrap simulation of the rate of return on the financial portfolio of the French Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites : FRR). Our results indicate that the FRR will cover at most 24 % of the expected deficit in 2020 and 14.9 % in 2040. We also explore the benefits and risks of a multipillar pension system in which the FRR is turned into a permanent ?public pension fund? (Fonds de Pension Public : FPP). The FPP contribution might raise the replacement rates substantially from 2050 on. However, the transition is long and risky owing to the significant probability of a lower replacement rate in the multipillar system in the first 30 years.
Cite this article
BibTeX
@ARTICLE{RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_194_0057,
title = {Quel avenir pour le Fonds de réserve pour les retraites ?},
author = {Mendez, Rodrigue and Ragot, Lionel},
year = {2010},
journal = {Economie & Prévision},
volume = {n° 194},
number = {3},
pages = {57-78},
abstract = {We use a model based on the latest forecasts by the French Retirement Advisory Council (Conseil d?Orientation des Retraites : COR) at the moment when the study was carried out and a Bootstrap simulation of the rate of return on the financial portfolio of the French Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de Réserve pour les Retraites : FRR). Our results indicate that the FRR will cover at most 24 % of the expected deficit in 2020 and 14.9 % in 2040. We also explore the benefits and risks of a multipillar pension system in which the FRR is turned into a permanent ?public pension fund? (Fonds de Pension Public : FPP). The FPP contribution might raise the replacement rates substantially from 2050 on. However, the transition is long and risky owing to the significant probability of a lower replacement rate in the multipillar system in the first 30 years.},
keywords = {PAYG pensions; multipillar; risk; Bootstrap},
url = {https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_194_0057}
}