Immigration, vieillissement démographique et financement de la protection sociale

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• Article - Revue économique

Résumé

L’immigration est souvent avancée comme l’un des instruments d’adaptation des économies confrontées au phénomène du vieillissement démographique. Dans cet article, nous évaluons, à l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique, la contribution d’une politique migratoire à la réduction du fardeau fiscal lié au vieillissement démographique en France. Globalement, ces effets sont positifs et le sont d’autant plus, à court-moyen terme, que la politique migratoire est sélective. À long terme, ces effets bénéfiques peuvent disparaître pour une politique très sélective. Cependant, les gains pour les finances publiques provenant de flux migratoires nets plus conséquents sont relativement modérés en comparaison des évolutions démographiques qu’ils impliquent.

Abstract

Immigration is often perceived as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants is the key feature that mainly determines the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes it implies.

Citation

Chojnicki, Xavier and Ragot, Lionel, (2012), Immigration, vieillissement démographique et financement de la protection sociale, Revue économique, 63, issue 3, p. 501-512, https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_633_0501.

@ARTICLE{RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_633_0501,
title = {Immigration, vieillissement démographique et financement de la protection sociale},
author = {Chojnicki, Xavier and Ragot, Lionel},
year = {2012},
journal = {Revue économique},
volume = {63},
number = {3},
pages = {501-512},
abstract = {Immigration is often perceived as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants is the key feature that mainly determines the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes it implies. Classification JEL : C68, D58, E60, H55, H68},
url = {https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_633_0501}
}