Pathways for Net-Zero: How Future Electricity Demand Shapes India's Power Sector Decarbonization Strategies

📝 Working paper HAL

Summary

India must decarbonise its power sector while electricity consumption could nearly triple by 2040; in 2023 the sector accounted for about 54% of the country’s energy-related CO₂ emissions. The paper uses a dynamic bottom-up linear optimisation model that determines the least-cost hourly dispatch and investment in generation and storage capacity, decade by decade from 2023 to 2070, under three demand scenarios linked to different GDP growth paths.

Wind and solar dominate capacity growth, but dispatchable thermal plants remain necessary for flexibility and reliability. Reaching net zero requires the full deployment of nuclear and hydro, and coal with carbon capture and storage becomes important after 2060, especially in the high-demand scenario. The deployment rates required for wind, nuclear and CCS exceed historical levels, raising feasibility concerns unless demand-side efficiency improves and transmission losses fall.